Every day brings new insights into the secular change our economy is going through. I was talking to a friend who told me that people he knows who have sold enterprise software for years are leaving the business in droves. Commerce One, who had a $20 Billion (with a "B") market cap a fews years back, is out of business. I2, for a long time the poster child of enterprise tech success, is essentially done. Siebel has no new license revenues, just a fading maintenance stream. A coleague of mine who is a senior IT executive at a Billion dollar Financial Services company says they haven't purchased ANY new enterprise software all year...I could go on.
This is not just a cyclical downturn. It is a fundemental restructuring of the way the technology marketplace works today. The confluence of several trends are driving this.
Fred Wilson, the venture captialist and blogger, has sold all his Microsoft stock because of the threat to the old regime from Open Source. Why would big IT shops pay for things they can get that are as good or even better "for free?"
The big tech stories of the year were the Google and Salesforce.com IPOs - both companies that represent the triumph of the new approach - what I have started to call the "PULL" tech economy - over the old approach of high priced tech pushed by outbound sales. What Seth Godin writes about in his books - the death of outbound marketing and the rise to primacy of the Purple Cow approach ("it's the product stupid") is driving this...and not just on a tactical level.
The Interent ultimately made it possible for the buyer to find what he/she needs and "PULL" it to themselves. Users no longer have to be "found" by salespeople, they find the products and services they want to consume. The net also made it possible to reduce the cost structure of putting technology out there for use...Google adwords are far cheaper then feet on the street, and far cheaper than full page ads in print magazines...
All this has contributed to the death of enterprise sales as we knew it...Thank god I'm a marketer.